Who will be the next US President?

[rklenseth]

So with just under a month left in the presidential campaign in the US who do you guys think will be voted into the office? And I don't mean who you would vote for but rather who you think it will be. And feel free to explain why.

[Piscator]

I thought it was spelled O'Barmer. I already wondered why he doesn't look Irish at all.

Just kidding.

I have actually no idea who will finally win the elections. The polls seem rather inconclusive and that's basically everything I can base my guess on. I hope Obama will win but it will be a close thing in any case.

[Tangential]

Well.. not Nader or Ron Paul - the national support behind these two parties are relatively small compared to the dominant republican and democratic parties.

So the duel will be between McCain and Obama.

Obama will most likely win electoral votes from west coast and north east coast states. Those include: California (55 EV), Washington (11 EV), oregon (7 EV), new York (31 EV), massachusetts (12 EV), Vermont (3 EV), Pennsylvania (21 EV), rhode island (4 EV), connecticut (7 EV), new jersey (15 EV), Maryland (10 EV), deleware (3 EV), maine (4 EV), new Hampshire (4 EV). Then there's Illinois (21 EV), michigan (17 EV), iowa (7 EV), Minnesota (10 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), new mexico (5 EV) and DC (3 EV). Oh and Hawaii (4 EV). So that would be 264 electoral votes.

He will need 270 to win

What are the swing states?
Nevada (5 EV), Colorado (9 EV), Missouri (11 EV), Indiana (11 EV), Ohio (20 EV), Virginia (13 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and Florida (27 EV)

I think Obama is statistically the favorite according to current polls. But, of course, attitudes towards one candidate can change, though I find that highly unlikely. The Obama-Biden campaign has been fairly consistent and strong, while the McCain-Palin campaign has proven itself relatively weaker (because of Palin’s numerous gaffes, IMHO).

Tang’s prediction: Obama as the 2008 President of the US

Tang’s bolder prediction: Obama will win by 58% the electoral votes and general population vote.

[frenchfisher]

Obama has a 90.8% chance of winning the election. (Source)

Current swing states: Florida, North Carolina (!), Missouri, West Virginia (!), Indiana (!!).

Currently projected to swing to Obama from Bush 2004: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

[DylPickle]

I'm so happy our elections in Canada only take a couple months. Our general election is only a few days away! (For those who half-care )

Anyways, I chose Obama in the polls. I may not be American, but I think it'd be hard not to vote for him. The man has charisma and looks like the most level-headed candidate for Presidential office I've ever seen (mind you I'm only 19). Furthermore, he has a way better chance to improve your country's international image, which has been tumbling down a slippery slope over the past decade.

[fishfin]

They are both too close in the poles to tell who is going to win.

One study that I was just reading about on Reuters said that a lot of the split between Obama and McCain is between generations. The younger generation is supposed to be favoring Obama by about 20 points, and the older generation seemed to be favoring McCain by about 20 points.

I was also reading about a Reader's Digest pole (that is actually pretty old as these things go, both candidates have been up and down since then, currently Obama is up by about ). The pole said that Obama is favored in every country surveyed accept for America.

Anyway, I think that a lot of aspects of American government are broken (including the whole tax system, I dread the day that I am going to have to start filing taxes) and I doubt either candidate is going to fix much of it.

[*Wiro]

I'm not that much into these things, but wasn't there a woman as well? ._.
I heard a few names.. Like Sarah Palin (Who got her email hacked by /b/ haha.)

[joo]

Besides that massive blacklash from nationalists and white-supremacists, I'd say that a new, young president will do a lot to improve America's image to the rest of the world. Because right now it's just that annoying country that made a mess in the middle east and the global economy and is probably causing global warming.

In fact, the fact that's black alone is certain to increase interest, especially since he is (or was) going against a female candidate. He'd be, what, the first black leader of a mainly caucasian nation?

[Tiamo]

I'm not that much into these things, but wasn't there a woman as well? ._.
I heard a few names.. Like Sarah Palin (Who got her email hacked by /b/ haha.)

When a candidate is chosen by his or her party to run for president the candidate will announce who will be his/her vice-president (the 'running mate').
John McCain, the republican candidate, chose Sarah Palin (F, just over 40, governor of Alaska) as his running mate.
Barack Obama, the democratic candidate, chose Joe Biden (M, 60+, senator for a small northeastern state) as his running mate.

[frenchfisher]

They are both too close in the poles to tell who is going to win.

No, they're not. Look at the source I gave you. Obama is currently up about 6 points in national polls. Statistically, it is very unlikely that this kind of lead can be reversed (though, as undecideds tend to break about 50-50, the most likely outcome will have Obama win by about 5.2% of the popular vote come election day)

[Surly]

Most polls have a 3.5-4.5 variance. Also, the Republicans tend to perform better on election day than exit polls suggest; mainly due to people being ashamed that they vote Republican, I would guess.

That means Obama's lead is no where near as concrete as he would like. He can't afford to slacken off at all.

Having said that, I believe Obama will win a narrow election. McCain's tired performances as we near the election are telling a painful toll on his campaign, and I think a majority (albeit small) of swing voters will vote for the more energetic and positive candidate: Barack Obama.

[*Wiro]

I'm not that much into these things, but wasn't there a woman as well? ._.
I heard a few names.. Like Sarah Palin (Who got her email hacked by /b/ haha.)

When a candidate is chosen by his or her party to run for president the candidate will announce who will be his/her vice-president (the 'running mate').
John McCain, the republican candidate, chose Sarah Palin (F, just over 40, governor of Alaska) as his running mate.
Barack Obama, the democratic candidate, chose Joe Biden (M, 60+, senator for a small northeastern state) as his running mate.

Ah. Ok. I think Barack Obama will win. Over here in the netherlands it's more about him that about McCain.

[Dudel]

What no write in? I wana vote for Micky Mouse!

Edit:

Seiously, Obama will and better win. I'm not voting tho. This way if McCain wins or if Obama fails I can complain all I want. Polotics mean nothing to the little guy tho. The 'electoral collage' has the final choice. It's all a load of crap. FAIL the government!

[frenchfisher]

Most polls have a 3.5-4.5 variance.

For one, the poll numbers still reflect the most likely state of the race based on the results used. Check out the wiki article. For two, that still means the leads is outside the margin of error.

Also, the Republicans tend to perform better on election day than exit polls suggest; mainly due to people being ashamed that they vote Republican, I would guess.

Evidence?

That means Obama's lead is no where near as concrete as he would like. He can't afford to slacken off at all.

Of course not; that might provide the game-changer that would lead to a McCain victory. But Obama can essentially coast to victory, provided there are no serious gaffes.

Polotics mean nothing to the little guy tho. The 'electoral collage' has the final choice.

Someone hasn't been paying attention to politics for the last 230 years.

[fishfin]

I doubt those poles are including overseas military people who ussually tend to be very social conservative / republican.

I was also just able to get to the website you had given (It had been inaccessible before) and noticed that it put on a whole lot more blue on the map than the NYTime's pole. I have no way of knowing which one is more accurate, but on both of them Obama has been gaining ground over the past couple of days.