Anybody out there?

[Kreed]

I recently came across this short film titled;

The Most Important Image Ever Taken
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcBV-cXVWFw


This film makes the case that the Hubble deep field photo is the most important image ever taken, why?
The basic argument is very many stars = very many planets must therefore = very many civilizations.

Now it cannot really be overstressed just how many stars there are, just watch the film and be boggled. Estimates are above 3 thousand million billion stars (3 followed by 16 zeroes), in the universe. So you'll probably be shaking your head at me in disbelief when I say for some time now I've been slowly gravitating towards the idea that WE are probably the only civilization in existence and maybe the only one ever.


No doubt some of you now think I'm retarded or arrogant or even both but I do have my reasons.
The real number of civilizations out there would be found not by counting the stars and saying, oh, there’s loads there must be stacks of civs but by calculating in some way the odds of us being here, (as we are the only example) and subtracting that figure from the amount of stars.


I have no way of doing that but if you turn it on its head and take the number of stars and subtract the ones that cannot support life you can arrive at a number.
Some years ago I read a book by the renowned author and scientist Issac Asimov. In this book he did just that. (I have tried to find the title but he wrote over 500 and its not coming to me).
He broke down into steps what is required for civilization and applied to the observable.
Eg; The universe has to be old enough for all of the various elements to enable life to have formed. Stars that have a reasonable size and wavelengths of light. Stars that are stable with planets. Single stars. Planets at the right distance from the star. Planets of a suitable size, of a suitable structure with a suitable chemicle composition ect, ect, ect!
There could be arguments made that perhaps alien life is so very different they don’t need these things, but I’m not arguing against alien ‘life’ but alien civilization. Also don’t forget any type of alien life will be chemically based so reactions have to happen, (not to cold), but not to destruction, (not to hot), which implies a fairly narrow temperature.




Reading this book was like a whodunnit for me, slowly whittling down the possibilities, I tell you I could hardly wait to get to the punch line! I’ll keep you in suspense no longer. The figure arrived at, (if my memory serves me was), 11,000!
Yes that’s right 11 thousand civilizations right here right now! That’s not how many there could be but how many there should be based on the known stats.



I was hoping to have time to expand on my statement above that sets the figure at one but I’m sure this will set the ball rolling and I’ll continue as I can.

Anywhoo my point, (apart from stirring up the pot with my inflammatory statement above). I contend that the picture from hubble although important pales into insignificance compared to this one:

[rklenseth]

Chances of life existing are very slim to impossible. In fact we exist only because of an anomaly. If life like us and even another planet with similiar conditions is even slimmer and even more impossible (if that is possible) than it is for us exist. Chances are better though that other life might exist that is not carbon base but if that is the case then we may never be able to contact it or if we did then we would never be able to meet because one or the other would never be able to survive in each other's life giving conditions.

[Sho]

There are many variables in any estimate of the number of life-bearing planets. Most of them are disputed and could easily vary by multiple orders of magnitude. Inconclusive.

[tiddy ogg]

The number of stars is so great that however slim the chances, I feel that other civilisations must be out there, no matter how slim the chances.
Thae problem is that we'll never know. Even if they try to contact us, in a form that our limited technology can translate, the distances are so vast that by the time we receive the message, (and by the time other civilisations receive ours,) thousands of years will have passed, and that civilisation may well have succeeded in doing what we are desperately attempting... wiping itself out.

[formerly known as hf]

What Sho said.
What we know of 'life' is very limited - there are possibilities we cannot take into account.

As for Asimov, I know that he did attempt this calculation (as have many many scientists before and after), but he also agreed it is inconclusive - in his statements, he wavers between there being other civilizations and not.

More recent versions of the same calculations either purport about 2,000 stars which can sustain life, or up to 200,000 - depending on the criteria used, so it's all a bit of a moot discussion really.

It is almost certain that 'life' exists, in some form, elsewhere in our galaxy (not to say the universe)
That another civilisation exists, can not be known, but is certainly not impossible, and may be probable.

And, anyway, if other civilisation are anyting like us, they'll have destroyed their own habitat already, and died out. Like we will. Soon.

[Kreed]

As Sho rightly points out, these arguments are at best inconclusive though it would seem logical to assume there may be life elsewhere by the simple fact that there is life here.

As Tiddy ogg says it seems intuitive that very many stars = very many planets must therefore = very many civilizations. My premise is that isn’t the case at all and here is why.

There is assumption being made that is so obvious that it seems ridiculous to mention, the assumption is “civilization” is a repeatable “thing”. Here is a chart.

Human civs Other species civs
Stacks 0

Estimate are that currently there are between 2 and a 100 million species on the planet so obviously going back through time that’s a lot more! Ok so that’s a stupid chart but it makes my point, lets look from a different view.
What do we need to be like to create civilization? If you read the literature you see research talking about things such as our ancestors evolving upright stance, opposable thumbs and binocular vision as leading to intelligence and so leading to civilization. This would seem to say that;
Stability + Intelligence + time = civilization
Its even seems to be the accepted premise that intelligence given time and stability will inevitably give rise to civilization! Its this very premise that underpins the argument for the many stars = many civs line of reasoning.
Ok, we’ve seen the scifi premise that if the dinosaurs hadn’t been destroyed there may be even now dino civilizations flourishing. Dinosaurs with large brain pans, upright stance and apparently opposable thumbs have even been discovered. They had plenty of time, compared to us they had forever!
A thought experiment that seems to fit this bit is if we could go back in time and pluck a caveman out of his life and bring him here how would he fit in? Fairly badly we can all probably agree, so ok what about the same caveman as a baby, any better? Maybe but maybe not, why would that be? Keep that thought for now and lets try another tack.

What is civilization?
Dictionary.coms definition

Civilization
1. an advanced state of human society, in which a high level of culture, science, industry, and government has been reached.
2. those people or nations that have reached such a state.
3. any type of culture, society, etc., of a specific place, time, or group: Greek civilization.
4. the act or process of civilizing or being civilized: Rome's civilization of barbaric tribes was admirable.
5. cultural refinement; refinement of thought and cultural appreciation: The letters of Madame de Sévigné reveal her wit and civilization.
6. cities or populated areas in general, as opposed to unpopulated or wilderness areas: The plane crashed in the jungle, hundreds of miles from civilization.
7. modern comforts and conveniences, as made possible by science and technology: After a week in the woods, without television or even running water, the campers looked forward to civilization again.


Notice that word in there, “human”. Heres another way of defining it;

Civilization
A human invention, a security blanket, a bubble, the Matrix!

So to cut this short. My argument is that considering our closest relatives are unable to function in this construction which we name “civilization” isn’t it slightly absurd to assume that a truly alien intelligence would construct something we would recognize as something so completely human as “civilization”?

[Phalynx]

I am a big fan of sci fi, and I love to imagine all kinds of wierd sh*t. I just wish I could be paid to do it like these guys.

We know very little about the universe on a macro level, let alone other ones. Until we known the limits and boundaries of what is out there - if such a thing is possible - we cannot make comments about what might or might not exist. If we wait for the course of human science to enable us to 'seek out new life' we will wait forever. It's possible some happy accident will provide us the evidence, or even contact, we fantasize about but you can't plan for or analyse this too much.

Oh and Kreed, who knows what the dolphins or apes would do (or would have done) if we weren't around to take the top position on the pyramid of civilisation.

[formerly known as hf]

You seem to have taken a plunge into one of my favourite lakes, kreed, that of semiotics.

You are very right to say that the concepts of 'civilisation', and related terms (religion, literacy, art, sociaty, culture and so forth) are human concepts, and it is very unlikely that anything comparable exists anywhere else.


That life exists elsewhere than this planet is highly likely.
That it is comparable to anything on our own planet is highly unlikely.



But it is arrogant to think that we are the only creatures, in the Universe, who are deeply organised, are able to manipulate our habitat, are able to communicate, can use tools, can construct structures etc.
Other species on our own planet do those - ants to name but one...
(Starship troopers?)



This line of reasoning, that humans are something special, unique, is a dangerous one. Even on our own planet we are not unique, and share traits with all manner of other species, mammalian and otherwise.
But it is this argument for uniqueness which makes humans, as a species, so arrogant. It is also one of the lines of reasonings which leads to a belief in the divine.
How else can we be so intelligent, so fitting for our planet if not for some external design?

We are designed for life on this planet the same way a puddle is designed to fit the shape of a depression.

[rklenseth]

What do we need to be like to create civilization? If you read the literature you see research talking about things such as our ancestors evolving upright stance, opposable thumbs and binocular vision as leading to intelligence and so leading to civilization. This would seem to say that;
Stability + Intelligence + time = civilization
Its even seems to be the accepted premise that intelligence given time and stability will inevitably give rise to civilization! Its this very premise that underpins the argument for the many stars = many civs line of reasoning.
Ok, we’ve seen the scifi premise that if the dinosaurs hadn’t been destroyed there may be even now dino civilizations flourishing. Dinosaurs with large brain pans, upright stance and apparently opposable thumbs have even been discovered. They had plenty of time, compared to us they had forever!
A thought experiment that seems to fit this bit is if we could go back in time and pluck a caveman out of his life and bring him here how would he fit in? Fairly badly we can all probably agree, so ok what about the same caveman as a baby, any better? Maybe but maybe not, why would that be? Keep that thought for now and lets try another tack.

What is civilization?
Dictionary.coms definition

Civilization
1. an advanced state of human society, in which a high level of culture, science, industry, and government has been reached.
2. those people or nations that have reached such a state.
3. any type of culture, society, etc., of a specific place, time, or group: Greek civilization.
4. the act or process of civilizing or being civilized: Rome's civilization of barbaric tribes was admirable.
5. cultural refinement; refinement of thought and cultural appreciation: The letters of Madame de Sévigné reveal her wit and civilization.
6. cities or populated areas in general, as opposed to unpopulated or wilderness areas: The plane crashed in the jungle, hundreds of miles from civilization.
7. modern comforts and conveniences, as made possible by science and technology: After a week in the woods, without television or even running water, the campers looked forward to civilization again.


Notice that word in there, “human”. Heres another way of defining it;

Civilization
A human invention, a security blanket, a bubble, the Matrix!

So to cut this short. My argument is that considering our closest relatives are unable to function in this construction which we name “civilization” isn’t it slightly absurd to assume that a truly alien intelligence would construct something we would recognize as something so completely human as “civilization”?

Actually I think it is accepted by historians that it is the development of culture that led to civilization not intelligence. There are many other intelligent animals that exist that didn't or haven't created civilizations. It was culture that led to humans forming from outside the small family unit and united large groups of people that eventually led to possibility of civilization existing. Without culture (language, religion, myths, legends, etc....) modern humans probably would never have banded together in large groups or at least stable ones.

[Kreed]

This line of reasoning, that humans are something special, unique, is a dangerous one. Even on our own planet we are not unique, and share traits with all manner of other species, mammalian and otherwise.
But it is this argument for uniqueness which makes humans, as a species, so arrogant. It is also one of the lines of reasonings which leads to a belief in the divine.

Actually my argument is the diametric counter to this line of reason. What I'm saying isn't that we're "special" in that way. I'm thinking more along the line of abberant, a mistake, in short a balls up!

Let me use a quote from Phalynx to help explain.

Oh and Kreed, who knows what the dolphins or apes would do (or would have done) if we weren't around to take the top position on the pyramid of civilisation.

I would like an explanation of how our civilization has prevented non-human civilization.
I see nothing we have done or even could have done to have stopped any other suitable lifeform from creating civilization.

Why is it taken for granted that what WE call civilization is the top of the pyramid? Hasn't it proven to be incredibly self destuctive? I'm suggesting the idea that our ancestors had some kind of dreadful malfunction that brought us this way. Consider that civilization is a concept we carry inside our heads as part of our world model. It extends our model building on society and human interaction. Perhaps a dolphin has an extension of its world view in its head that it considers, "civilization". If it could speak and say I am civilized and belong to the dolphin civilization on what grounds could we deny that? The same with Elephants and Apes also, by the way Phalanx Apes do rule the world, wierd hairless ones.

[Kreed]

Instead of civilzation destroying the places we live it would seem much more sensible that it brought the "civee" closer and closer to nature. Where you think it arrogant of me to say we are unique, it seems more arrogant to me that we say, this is the right way, we are the ultimate in evolution, only creatures that have come this way are civilized, arn't we special!

[Phalynx]

I agree the things that many of the things that make us 'civilised' are counter-evolutionary.

Caring for the old and infirm,
Co-operation and altruism,
Culture, by which I mean the arts.
Labour saving devices,
Haute Cuisine,
Sport.

You can rationalise these things with complicated theories, but naked-apes we ain't, however you choose to believe we got to this place!

[Kreed]

The first two on your list and prolly the most highly regarded have been shown repeatedly to exist in Elephant and Dolphin culture.
We are clearly closely related to apes and I am nearly hairless, (receding hairline).

[BarbaricAvatar]

Ok, assuming Kreed's theory is correct, then what is the point in there being so many stars and so many planets if none of them have anything on?

Mankind is never going to discover other life itself as it has become too dependent on how much everything costs rather than trying to move ourselves forward to find out more about the universe.

[Kreed]

From what I understand stars and planets however magnificent are things, things don't require reason, they just are.