The Bird Flu

[Cdls]

I think Im with Racetyme on this, if its spreadin from person to person and in my town, im locking myself away till it passes.

[formerly known as hf]

Guys, guys... Asia is huge. Billions of people live there. This flu has gone clear across Asia in the past few months and infected only 117 people. True, out of those, 60 have died - but what this says to me is that your immune system has to be seriously compromised even to get it in the first place. Further, I highly doubt that the 60 who died had very good access to medical care.

Officials always worry about the thought of a virus mutating into an airborne strain. They worried about it with Ebola - didn't happen there. They worried about it with HIV - same story. Virii do not readily mutate into airborne strains at the drop of a hat, despite what Hollywood may claim.

This is not something to be worked up into a fear frenzy over. Not leaving the house? Not leaving the store? Relax already! Bird flu is not a threat to humans as it is, and if it becomes such, the news media will quickly inform us.

Sav

I actually agree wholeheartedly with you on this. I voted 'no' last night but was too tired to post... This pretty much echoes what I would have said - The areas it has travelled through include some of the poorest and destitute places in the world. Where health care is probably non-existant. That probably explains the high death-to infection ratio. But, considering that such a small number of people were infected in areas of extreme poverty and very low health, I doubt it's very virulent, and that western health systems will take it in their stride.

[ephiroll]

The bird flu, if it does what everyone fears will be the worse disaster any of us will see in our lifetimes. Doing a little math, assuming that the new flu has the same fatality rate (which it is actually much higher), 150 million could die in a pandemic. And we're way overdue for another one.

[Savanik]

... 150 million could die in a pandemic. And we're way overdue for another one.

Oh, no! We're overdue for another one! That means it's even more likely!

[/sarcasm]

Sorry, Ephiroll. But that idea, like many other common myths about statistics, is something I go out of my way to stamp out.

If you flip a coin 15 times and get heads every single time, the chance that the coin will be heads on your next flip is: 50%. It's always 50%. Now, the chance that you actually will flip a coin 15 times in a row and get heads each time is very very low. But each time, the next flip is 50/50.

Your chances of winning the next lottery don't go up the longer you play, either.

The chance that this will mutate into an airborne strain is extremely, extremely low (low enough to need scientific notation to express them), and the officials fearmongering about it are just distracting our attention from more important issues - deliberately or not.

If we actually wanted to think ahead and plan for things like this, perhaps we should start a fund based on the idea that in the next 1000 years, we will probably face a major pandemic, and if we wait until it happens we won't have the resources to cope with it adequately. A penny per person per year should do quite nicely, combined with a conservative investment plan to make it grow with compound interest.

Then we just have to keep Congress's sticky little fingers out of the piggybank.

Sav

[Racetyme]

Exactly. And all you people who play the lottery, 123456 is just as likely as 42, 7, 53, 38, 9, 14. It is just a fact, I will explain it if I have to.

The CDC already effectively does what you describe Sav, they just need more funding and personel, I read a good book recently on infectious disease, and dedicated people are a greater boon than money. Although money would help too, I'm sure.

[Stan]

Savanik historically (recent of course) every 35 years there is a flu pandemic. I'm not terrified, but it does seem likely that in the next few years there will be a pandemic.

Difference is this: 1. We have antibiotics that weren't available during the bad pandemics in the past to fight secondary infection, 2. We have antivirals (like Temaflu) to find the virus directly.

Problem is this: 1. Many in impoverished nations don't have access to either thereby increasing the likelyhood of death and continued proliferation. 2. We don't have enough of the antiviral at the moment to fight a major pandemic.

So, as I tend to agree with you that the issue has been likely blown out of proportion, fact remains that this should be a concern. As you said the chances are the same everytime you flip the coin that you'll get heads. Results were in the world's favor in the 70's with the "swine flu" but we have the same odds this time around.

[Pie]

Do you know anything? All medicine will be paid for? That's like saying getting Ebola isn't a big deal. There is no medicine.

I said SHOULD be paid for. If ther is Medicen for this MEDICADE SHOULD PAY FOR IT, and plus, the one pople who regulate food, like with the mad cow deseis... THEM, They are probably watching all of the chikens that are coming into america..

But what if we have to stop buying chiken frome turky, and all of the other chiken mongers... THE PRICE OF CHIKEN WILL GO UP!!! K.F.C MIGHT BE AFFECTED!!

[Racetyme]

KFC will be fine, there will still be plenty of roadkill to fry up laying around. God, I hate KFC.

[ephiroll]

... 150 million could die in a pandemic. And we're way overdue for another one.

Oh, no! We're overdue for another one! That means it's even more likely!

[/sarcasm]

Sorry, Ephiroll. But that idea, like many other common myths about statistics, is something I go out of my way to stamp out.

If you flip a coin 15 times and get heads every single time, the chance that the coin will be heads on your next flip is: 50%. It's always 50%. Now, the chance that you actually will flip a coin 15 times in a row and get heads each time is very very low. But each time, the next flip is 50/50.

Your chances of winning the next lottery don't go up the longer you play, either.

The chance that this will mutate into an airborne strain is extremely, extremely low (low enough to need scientific notation to express them), and the officials fearmongering about it are just distracting our attention from more important issues - deliberately or not.

You seem to not know what an educated guess is. In 1918 there were aprox 2 billion people, the flu killed 50 million, or roughly .0025% of the world's population. Since there are roughly 6 billion people on the planet now, it's not rocket science to figure out how many could be affected. And that's not counting in the advanced transportation systems that can carry it even faster then in 1918.

And biology doesn't follow coin flips as you imply, the flips add up because the mutations add up. There are already strains of this new bird flu that are resistant to every drug we have available to fight it. And yes the chances are low (but hmm, you're using a statistic yourself ) but when it is multiplied by the billions of chances it has with each shard of virus DNA, it adds up.

Thinking this cannot happen is what will get us all killed.

They also didn't think that New Orleans was going to get hit this year by a major hurricaine. No one expected a tsunami to wipe out 1/4 million people. No one expected TB and polio to make a comeback. No one expected there to be at least 8 different strains of AIDS in existence by now (several of which are immune to drug treatment). No one expected staph to mutate into a form that is resistant to our strongest antibiotics.

Like everyone else who thinks like this, you're going to be in for a bad surprise one day.

[Racetyme]

For the record on this, there are next to no VRSA strains out there.

[Antichrist_Online]

I'm not worried, because frankly we're all going to die soon anyway. But on bird flu, your body could have a resistance gene already in it, we don't know enough about the effects on humans to know what biological defences we may or may not have. There's a gene that causes HIV resistance currently under research.

The only thing I'm worried about is all the stuff been snuck past us as the media reports the big things: War on Terror, Bird Flu, etc. What about the environmental damage or energy crisis?

[formerly known as hf]

K.F.C MIGHT BE AFFECTED!!

NO!
Now...
Now I'm worried
NOT KFC!

[nitefyre]

Just to tackle one issue of the argument, as that's all I have time for at the moment, consider all the things they give us antibiotics for. Its effectiveness will become marginal due to resistance, through excessive use. I mean, one goes from taking 2 tylenols for headaches, then 4, 6...etc, as a parallel example.

I don't think any of us are yelling "doomsday," but should it be a concern for society at large just like any other issue, yes. And since it's been brought up, the Spanish Flu (of 1918) also had an origin strain from a bird.

Tsk, Ephiroll, a good time for an advertisement plug, don't you think ?

[ephiroll]

Tsk, Ephiroll, a good time for an advertisement plug, don't you think ?

No doubt, but I've been following the bird flu for about 3 years now, I started my book with it in mind to begin with, so the whole topic isn't really anything special to me.

[Pie]

They also didn't think that New Orleans was going to get hit this year by a major hurricaine.

Well.. actually, there was this group of people.. maby they were the F.D.A, but they Brought up This EXACT issu "What would happen if there was a terrorist attack in New York, A major hurricane in New Orleans, And an Earthqueak in California.

CALIFORNIA IS GOING DOWN!!!

PLUS, we have the PEOPLE WHO MONOTORED THE MAD COW DESIEAS!! THEY WILL PROTECT US!!!!

was it the Federal Department of Agricultur that protected america from Mad cow Desieas?